Faculty Sponsor: David Kuenzel
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Dragos Geica
Dragos is a rising junior (’28) from Romania double majoring in Economics and French Studies and pursuing a certificate in Data Science. Outside of academics, he enjoys learning languages, crocheting, and cooking. After Wesleyan, Dragos hopes to use his interests in economics and data analysis to pursue a career in economic consulting.
Abstract: The United States has been one of the most active users of World Trade Organization–sanctioned temporary trade barriers (TTBs), including antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguard measures, to respond to import competition. However, uncertainty remains about how imports respond during the different stages of the TTB process. This project examines the effects of U.S. temporary trade barriers on imports at the product-exporter-quarter level between 1990 and 2024. A detailed dataset links quarterly U.S. import records to date-specific information on individual TTB cases, allowing the analysis to distinguish among the period preceding an investigation, the investigation stage, the preliminary duty stage, and the final duty stage. Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood regressions with high-dimensional fixed effects estimate changes in imports at each stage while accounting for differences across products, exporting countries, and time. The analysis also documents the share of U.S. imports covered by active trade barriers and compares patterns across antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguard actions. By examining abrupt changes in U.S. trade policy at a highly disaggregated level, the project provides evidence on when temporary trade barriers begin to affect trade and how their effects evolve over the course of a case.
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