Breaking Bad: The Association between Republicans Voting to Impeach Donald Trump and Approval Rating

by

Faculty Sponsor: Logan Dancey

Justin Weinstein

Justin is a rising senior from Hoboken, New Jersey studying Government and Data Analysis. His interests include political polarization, state-level elections, and congressional policy making. At Wesleyan, he has worked as a research assistant for the Government department and had his findings acknowledged in a forthcoming academic book. He most recently spent a semester abroad studying at University College London. Justin is also a senior staff writer for Wesleyan’s Arcadia Political Review and a member of the club ice hockey team.  

Abstract: This study utilizes data from the Cooperative Election Study to examine the relationship between a Republican member of Congress—serving in either the House of Representatives or the Senate—voting to impeach President Donald Trump and their approval ratings among both Republican and Democratic voters. Linear regression was used to measure the extent to which Republican members of Congress were punished or rewarded by Republican and Democratic respondents, respectively, for an impeachment vote. Results show that voting to impeach Donald Trump is significantly associated with a sizable drop in approval rating among Republicans in both chambers (with a larger drop in the House), which, in turn, may have cost them their seats in Congress. Among Democratic respondents, voting to impeach Trump is only significantly associated with higher approval for Republican House members.

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